The Daily Kos Elections Morning Digest is compiled by David Nir, Jeff Singer, Stephen Wolf, Carolyn Fiddler, and Matt Booker, with additional contributions from David Jarman, Steve Singiser, Daniel Donner, James Lambert, David Beard, and Arjun Jaikumar.
Leading Off
●OR Redistricting: In a dramatic reversal on Monday, House Speaker Tina Kotek effectively rescinded a springtime deal she had made with Republicans to give them equal representation on the chamber's redistricting committees, instead allowing Democrats to advance their preferred maps to floor.
Kotek established a new committee to handle congressional redistricting made up of two Democrats and one Republican, but the Republican member, Rep. Shelly Boshart Davis, boycotted its proceedings, letting Democrats pass their map 2-0. Kotek also added two new members, one Democrat and one Republican, to the existing committee tasked with legislative redistricting, but that Republican, Rep. Greg Smith, was described by OPB's Dirk VanderHart as "a frequent ally of the speaker's on tight votes"—and indeed he came through, as the Democrats' map passed 5-3 with his support.
Kotek's hand was forced in large part by her counterparts in the state Senate, who had not struck a similar deal with Republicans and were able to pass both maps earlier on Monday before swiftly adjourning. Were the House to approve different maps as a result of a compromise with Republicans, that would require senators to come back into session to reach a final agreement, something Senate leaders could simply refuse to do as a hardball negotiating tactic.
But we're still far from a resolution, as embittered Republicans are now threatening to stage a walkout that would deny House Democrats the two-thirds supermajority needed for a quorum, something they've done repeatedly in recent years to halt Democratic legislation from moving forward. However, while the GOP has successfully blocked bills to, say, mitigate climate change this way, there's a key difference here: If lawmakers can't pass new legislative maps, the duty would instead fall to Secretary of State Shemia Fagan, a Democrat.
There's no telling what kind of lines Fagan might draw, but that's precisely the point. At least with the Democrats' current proposal, Republicans know exactly what they'd be getting, which is particularly important because legislators are required to live in their districts under the state constitution. A Fagan map could cause a serious scramble if a raft of GOP lawmakers were to suddenly find themselves in new districts.
As for the congressional map, should a new one fail to pass, borders would be redrawn by the courts, which would probably result in more favorable districts for Republicans than the plan Democrats have put forth. However, any upsides are largely abstract compared to the very real consequences (for legislators) stemming from new legislative boundaries.
The showdown had appeared headed for a climax on Tuesday when matters veered off course in the most appropriate-for-these-times way possible: An unspecified individual who'd been in the capitol building on Monday was diagnosed with COVID, prompting the legislature to adjourn. An email from Kotek’s office Tuesday evening said that legislators will be back on Saturday, making for a tight timeline, as lawmakers must pass new maps for their own districts by Monday, Sept. 27 or else Fagan will take over.